0xa24451153cc6c96839131b3790a7ecaf7537e2df
0xa24451153cc6c96839131b3790a7ecaf7537e2df
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-277.49
Realised
$-5.85
Win rate
45%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will France win on 2026-07-18?
3109 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-18.51
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 18, 11PM ET
1850 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
1756 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-21.95
- YES
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?
1504 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.76
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8PM ET
300 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.32
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
229 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.59
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 19, 2PM ET
196 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
185 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
159 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-18.90
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 19, 6PM ET
123 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$3.01Jul 21, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$2.00Jul 21, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$1.33Jul 21, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$2.00Jul 21, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$2.01Jul 21, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$1.30Jul 21, 21:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$1.48Jul 21, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$3.00Jul 21, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.01Jul 21, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$10.01Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$23.82Jul 21, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$10.03Jul 21, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$18.11Jul 21, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$10.01Jul 21, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$15.02Jul 21, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.90Jul 21, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$2.92Jul 21, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$2.00Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 18:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 21:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.