Wallet profile

Excited-Lanai

0xa24a0b7c4eac2ff633939891910f666cd6769211

activity 70/100

Wallet digest

directional whale

Activity score

70/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

9

Open notional

$511.11

Total PnL

$-18.5K

Realised

$210.06

Win rate

67%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

Recent activity

  • YIELD$2.18Feb 20, 00:20 UTC
  • TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$22.8KFeb 19, 20:33 UTC
  • YIELD$2.67Feb 19, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$2.73Feb 18, 00:43 UTC
  • YIELD$2.73Feb 17, 00:43 UTC
  • YIELD$2.73Feb 16, 00:46 UTC
  • YIELD$2.77Feb 15, 00:48 UTC
  • YIELD$2.86Feb 14, 00:29 UTC
  • YIELD$2.85Feb 13, 00:38 UTC
  • YIELD$2.85Feb 12, 00:23 UTC
  • YIELD$2.83Feb 11, 00:38 UTC
  • YIELD$2.86Feb 10, 00:48 UTC
  • YIELD$2.88Feb 9, 00:29 UTC
  • YIELD$2.86Feb 8, 00:26 UTC
  • YIELD$2.80Feb 7, 00:32 UTC
  • YIELD$2.89Feb 6, 00:55 UTC
  • YIELD$2.97Feb 5, 00:36 UTC
  • YIELD$2.99Feb 4, 00:22 UTC
  • YIELD$2.95Feb 3, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$2.93Feb 2, 00:29 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

5/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

67% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal
block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record
review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity8 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry11 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk100 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
1
Avg trade size
$22.8K
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jan 1, 00:01 UTC
Last active
Feb 20, 00:20 UTC
Win rate sample
3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 22:30:39 UTC·src:Polymarket Data