Immediate-Document
0xa253d75c2dfb2c6650291d5e8d54076d2fb40181
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-15.2K
Realised
$-4.36
Win rate
56%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
455 shares @ 77.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-350.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
300 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
300 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-55.53
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
300 shares @ 35.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-106.54
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
300 shares @ 63.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-191.52
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
300 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-76.86
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
300 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-50.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
259 shares @ 57.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-147.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$7.30Jul 21, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$2.19Jul 21, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$5.11Jul 21, 21:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$30.00Jul 21, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$8.10Jul 21, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$8.10Jul 21, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$7.20Jul 21, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$7.40Jul 21, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$6.10Jul 21, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$20.00Jul 21, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$8.10Jul 21, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$8.10Jul 21, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$8.10Jul 21, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$7.80Jul 21, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$7.80Jul 21, 19:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$10.00Jul 21, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$2.25Jul 21, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$2.25Jul 21, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$6.60Jul 21, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$5.40Jul 21, 18:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $5.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 17:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 21:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.