Skinny-Likelihood
0xa25bfea7b99251050ad878b865acea4019e81828
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-227.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 14?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET
100 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-45.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - October 23, 9PM ET
99 shares @ 50.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET
99 shares @ 52.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2025$0.00
$-52.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8PM ET
99 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2025$0.00
$-19.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10PM ET
97 shares @ 36.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2025$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
50 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.10
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
8 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
6 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
5 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMCavaliers vs. Bucks$4.26Feb 26, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYDrake Bulldogs vs. Valparaiso Beacons$2.00Feb 26, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYCavaliers vs. Bucks$2.90Feb 26, 02:20 UTC
- REDEEMPacers vs. Wizards$2.90Feb 26, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMHawks vs. 76ers$4.48Feb 26, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMMonmouth Hawks vs. UNCW Seahawks$5.00Feb 26, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYMonmouth Hawks vs. UNCW Seahawks$3.55Feb 20, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYPacers vs. Wizards$2.00Feb 20, 01:56 UTC
- REDEEMTroy Trojans vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks$5.00Feb 20, 01:54 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?$998.99Feb 20, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?$1000.00Feb 20, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYHawks vs. 76ers$3.00Feb 20, 01:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$786.05Feb 19, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$789.00Feb 19, 02:42 UTC
- REDEEMSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles$4.29Feb 19, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYTroy Trojans vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks$3.30Feb 19, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWichita State Shockers vs. East Carolina Pirates$2.40Feb 19, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$864.13Feb 15, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$865.00Feb 15, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish$0.00Feb 15, 01:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $324.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 11, 08:36 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 26, 10:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.