Burdensome-Reindeer
0xa26c0223e7bf77520ccdcf58a17aa3bfeb278c2b
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-20.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on January 23?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the US strike Iran next?
510 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for France by Feburary 1?
65 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?
48 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.79
- YES
Will Trump say "N Word" in January?
40 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?
24 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Powell say "Too late" during January press conference?
20 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 23?
18 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Iran next?$1.00Jan 23, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?$1.79Jan 23, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The Netherlands by Feburary 1?$0.63Jan 23, 23:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$0.22Jan 23, 23:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum?$0.02Jan 23, 23:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Portugal" or "Portuguese" this week? (January 25)$0.26Jan 23, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$0.52Jan 23, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$1.29Jan 23, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?$1.85Jan 23, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for France by Feburary 1?$1.50Jan 22, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 23?$2.00Jan 22, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on January 23?$2.00Jan 22, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?$3.00Jan 22, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$5.00Jan 21, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$5.00Jan 21, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$4.00Jan 21, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$5.00Jan 21, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Too late" during January press conference?$5.00Jan 21, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?$5.00Jan 21, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "N Word" in January?$2.50Jan 21, 22:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $2.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 21, 22:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 23, 23:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.