Bold-Draft
0xa276cb94ae379c866011aeda73ad29cdace23584
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-313.95
Realised
$-12.89
Win rate
26%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 9?
1034 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-77.90
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
366 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 25?
216 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 10?
195 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 23?
135 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 10?
129 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
107 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 23?
99 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 4?$1.03Jun 4, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3?$0.61Jun 3, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3?$1.02Jun 3, 10:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 3?$1.42Jun 3, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 3?$1.11Jun 2, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$1.03Jun 1, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$1.00Jun 1, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 1?$1.13Jun 1, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 2?$1.03Jun 1, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 1?$1.01Jun 1, 11:15 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.01Jun 1, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.00Jun 1, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.02Jun 1, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.00Jun 1, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 31?$0.96May 31, 10:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 31?$0.76May 30, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 31?$0.18May 30, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 31?$1.03May 30, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?$0.63May 30, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?$2.04May 30, 15:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
26% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 22:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 08:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.