Stingy-Thorn
0xa27916066f1cbb3c5fd6b4f0d1e81a2b6f670371
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
187
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-220.6K
Realised
$-93.5K
Win rate
17%
156 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 187- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,700 on September 13?
23952 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2025$0.00
$-9.3K
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 13?
10885 shares @ 29.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2025$0.00
$-3.3K
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 18?
10245 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 18, 2025$0.00
$-6.4K
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,700 on September 18?
8884 shares @ 65.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 18, 2025$0.00
$-5.8K
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,500 on October 4?
7447 shares @ 39.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.9K
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on September 12?
6897 shares @ 23.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.6K
- UP
XRP Up or Down on October 4?
5988 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $230 and $240 on September 12?
5878 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 23?
5037 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 23, 2025$0.00
$-1.4K
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $130k in October?$4.0KNov 10, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $5400 in October?$5.0KNov 10, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $300 in October?$5.0KNov 10, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $5600 in October?$5.0KNov 10, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $135k in October?$5.0KNov 10, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $5200 in October?$6.0KNov 10, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $150 in October?$6.2KNov 10, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $270 in October?$6.2KNov 10, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $5000 in October?$7.0KNov 10, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5000 in October?$998.00Oct 30, 10:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $130k in October?$711.07Oct 30, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $130k in October?$286.93Oct 30, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5000 in October?$993.50Oct 29, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5000 in October?$1.50Oct 29, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $130k in October?$995.00Oct 29, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $135k in October?$998.00Oct 29, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5200 in October?$315.53Oct 29, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5200 in October?$31.66Oct 29, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5200 in October?$449.10Oct 29, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5200 in October?$32.89Oct 29, 13:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 156 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
156 closed markets, 17% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $314.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 28, 07:13 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 10, 15:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 156 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.