Impressive-Polliwog
0xa27917c098197c8870355d8ee817b8cb7f9749af
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
165
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-831.83
Win rate
1%
130 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 165- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 4?
255 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-8.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
248 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-70.38
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
72 shares @ 37.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-26.73
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
54 shares @ 44.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-23.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on January 23?
49 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on January 22?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
43 shares @ 45.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-19.52
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
41 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-19.34
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
35 shares @ 62.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-21.78
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
32 shares @ 61.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-19.67
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 4?$5.00Jul 6, 06:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 5?$5.00Jul 6, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 4?$5.00Jul 4, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 4?$3.26Jul 3, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 4?$3.80Jul 3, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 5?$3.06Jul 3, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 4?$3.55Jul 3, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $185?$10.00Jul 3, 07:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?$15.00Jul 3, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $90?$0.08Mar 10, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $90?$0.73Mar 10, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $100?$5.10Mar 10, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?$8.25Mar 10, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?$2.30Mar 10, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $185?$6.00Mar 10, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $190?$1.30Mar 10, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$8.06Feb 17, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$6.58Feb 17, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$13.76Feb 17, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$10.14Feb 17, 14:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
66/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 130 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
130 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $5.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 17, 09:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 06:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 130 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.