Mediocre-Clavier
0xa282f14c503d1ed3d11e67b84eee9dadb60a1cc2
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
86
Open notional
$0.09
Total PnL
$-19.2K
Realised
$94.56
Win rate
57%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 86- YES
Will France win the 2022 World Cup?
231 shares @ 48.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2022$0.09
$-110.91
- NO
Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.2% from August to September 2022?
6115 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2022$0.00
$-3.0K
- NO
Will ETH hit $2,000 by EOY?
5840 shares @ 47.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2023$0.00
$-2.8K
- YES
$ARB above $10 one week after launch?
5620 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2023$0.00
$-92.18
- NO
Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.1% from August to September 2022?
4607 shares @ 30.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2022$0.00
$-1.4K
- YES
US Congress approve more Ukraine aid in 2023?
4594 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2023$0.00
$-426.35
- YES
Trump heavier than 260 lbs?
3257 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2023$0.00
$-479.44
- NO
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
2781 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2024$0.00
$-688.92
- NO
US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023?
2681 shares @ 58.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2024$0.00
$-1.6K
- $1800
Will $ETH hit $1,800 or $2,200 first?
2623 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2024$0.00
$-812.87
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year?$0.57Feb 8, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMIs the Room-Temp Superconductor real?$1.00Feb 8, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its November meeting?$1.00Feb 8, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency?$97.40Nov 2, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWinning candidate also wins popular vote?$1.60Nov 2, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMETH above $1,700 on Aug 25?$1.00Nov 2, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency?$112.00Nov 2, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?$210.00Nov 2, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?$195.00Jul 31, 00:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill crude oil hit $100 in 2023?$1.69Jul 30, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin above $65,000 on July 26?$591.11Jul 26, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above $58,000 on July 19?$7.59Jul 25, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $65,000 on July 26?$276.14Jul 25, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELL2024 July hottest on record?$226.04Jul 22, 04:16 UTC
- TRADESELL2024 July hottest on record?$50.10Jul 22, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUY2024 July hottest on record?$647.50Jul 16, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELL2024 July hottest on record?$351.50Jul 16, 21:04 UTC
- TRADESELL2024 July hottest on record?$185.00Jul 16, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELL2024 July hottest on record?$111.00Jul 16, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUY2024 July hottest on record?$130.48Jul 16, 19:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
37 closed markets, 57% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $106.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 08:46 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 8, 06:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.