Plush-Loft
0xa284880f7c037d6458a2f0d1ca04074718b1fbba
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$303.18
Total PnL
$-218.44
Realised
$1.2K
Win rate
88%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
248 shares @ 20.1¢·now 23.3¢·exp May 19, 2026$57.70
$7.70
- NO
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%?
185 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp May 20, 2026$49.07
$-0.93
- YES
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be between -1% and 1%?
217 shares @ 23.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$47.83
$-2.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17?
247 shares @ 20.2¢·now 18.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$44.55
$-5.41
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 16?
68 shares @ 61.6¢·now 59.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$40.40
$-1.80
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?
29 shares @ 34.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$29.24
$19.24
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24 shares @ 83.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$19.76
$-0.24
- YES
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 2.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$9.33
$8.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 16?
42 shares @ 9.5¢·now 8.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$3.36
$-0.62
- YES
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.25
$-3.75
Recent activity
- REDEEMJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$10.64May 16, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$29.63May 16, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$50.00May 16, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 16?$43.01May 16, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on May 16?$51.54May 16, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$52.00May 16, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17?$51.95May 16, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Target Q1 comparable sales growth be between -1% and 1%?$51.54May 16, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%?$51.46May 16, 04:38 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$3.75May 15, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 16?$5.23May 15, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?$5.16May 15, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 16?$5.23May 15, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?$5.17May 15, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?$5.16May 15, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN?$12.13May 15, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 16?$1.40May 15, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 15?$0.53May 15, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 15?$3.08May 15, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 15?$1.04May 15, 05:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $11.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 10, 01:38 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 04:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".