Webbed-Fallacy
0xa293e35f19a7f965aa423016105cc42ea834f218
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-524.12
Realised
$-32.22
Win rate
3%
159 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
300 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.60
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
233 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- UP
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
176 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-0.87
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
151 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
108 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
95 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.03
- YES
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?
70 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
68 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$5.77Aug 23, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$3.10Aug 23, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$5.88Aug 22, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$3.10Aug 22, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$5.77Aug 22, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$3.10Aug 22, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$3.10Aug 22, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$5.66Aug 22, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$3.10Aug 22, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$3.10Aug 22, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$3.10Aug 22, 14:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$5.66Aug 22, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$3.10Aug 22, 10:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$5.66Aug 22, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$3.10Aug 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$5.88Aug 22, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$3.10Aug 22, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$3.10Aug 22, 05:13 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$5.88Aug 22, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$3.10Aug 22, 02:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 159 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
159 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $3.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 20:46 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 02:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 159 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.