0xa2b6c5e6a1d7000efa2aeaf7b4f375b02bf84451
0xa2b6c5e6a1d7000efa2aeaf7b4f375b02bf84451
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$305.03
Total PnL
$-169.48
Realised
$-6.42
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?
60 shares @ 60.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$33.89
$-2.11
- NO
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B?
48 shares @ 94.7¢·now 58.3¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$27.98
$-17.47
- YES
Will Eduardo Camavinga stay at Real Madrid?
58 shares @ 72.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$25.91
$-15.54
- YES
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?
60 shares @ 45.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$23.70
$-3.30
- YES
Will Astralis Make a Roster Change before September?
54 shares @ 51.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$21.25
$-6.54
- NO
Will BetBoom Make a Roster Change before September?
41 shares @ 85.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$21.16
$-14.10
- NO
Will MrBeast say "Calendar" during his next YouTube video?
24 shares @ 94.7¢·now 86.8¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$20.83
$-1.90
- YES
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?
60 shares @ 60.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$18.90
$-17.10
- NO
Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?
60 shares @ 52.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$18.00
$-13.20
- NO
Will Bank First (BFC) beat quarterly earnings?
30 shares @ 47.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$15.60
$1.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill International Business Machines (IBM) Q2 Software revenue be above $8.2B?$23.04Jul 10, 02:18 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.18Jul 10, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$0.10Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$34.60Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$0.39Jul 9, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill BetBoom Make a Roster Change before September?$1.85Jul 9, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "CONFESSIONS II - Madonna" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 18?$0.16Jul 9, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "CONFESSIONS II - Madonna" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 18?$13.65Jul 9, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "CONFESSIONS II - Madonna" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 18?$14.33Jul 9, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "CONFESSIONS II - Madonna" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 18?$26.68Jul 9, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video?$1.03Jul 9, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Beer" this week?$20.91Jul 9, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Angela Rayner be the next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?$21.12Jul 9, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "CONFESSIONS II - Madonna" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 18?$54.60Jul 9, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill International Business Machines (IBM) Q2 Software revenue be above $8.2B?$23.04Jul 9, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Beer" this week?$20.91Jul 9, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$1.42Jul 9, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?$14.40Jul 9, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kinder Morgan (KMI) beat quarterly earnings?$1.04Jul 9, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in July?$14.82Jul 9, 14:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $10.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 02:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.