Stiff-Functionality
0xa2c1fb2f01b4c58ed088e19d08ce94950598b127
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$610.52
Total PnL
$-254.60
Realised
$78.35
Win rate
68%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 24?
73 shares @ 20.1¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$51.66
$36.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 26?
57 shares @ 59.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$40.05
$6.29
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 24?
55 shares @ 40.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$35.20
$13.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 25?
60 shares @ 48.3¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$30.90
$1.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 24?
110 shares @ 27.4¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$29.15
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 26?
50 shares @ 45.8¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$22.75
$-0.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 24?
46 shares @ 29.3¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$21.10
$7.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 26?
50 shares @ 25.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$16.00
$3.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 26?
72 shares @ 22.3¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$15.52
$-0.61
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?
18 shares @ 68.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$14.36
$2.15
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 24?$2.68Jul 24, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 24?$0.15Jul 24, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 24?$0.15Jul 24, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 24?$0.30Jul 24, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$0.06Jul 24, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 25?$0.10Jul 24, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 25?$0.30Jul 24, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 25?$0.00Jul 24, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 25?$0.30Jul 24, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 25?$0.30Jul 24, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 25?$0.00Jul 24, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 24?$0.12Jul 24, 12:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 24?$1.60Jul 24, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 26?$3.05Jul 24, 12:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 24?$0.80Jul 24, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 25?$0.30Jul 24, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 24?$0.99Jul 24, 12:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 24?$2.31Jul 24, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 24?$0.04Jul 24, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 24?$0.10Jul 24, 12:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
31 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 11:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 12:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.