Bowed-Contingency
0xa3168f8731f8eeefac56882912299d48846b1bb3
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$60.38
Total PnL
$-76.25
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
578 shares @ 16.6¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.88
$-40.86
- YES
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
1000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$5.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Trump out as President by April 30?
833 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 8 straight weeks?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
270 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.89
- YES
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 9 straight weeks?
157 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
145 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 10 straight weeks?
140 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$37.47Apr 5, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by April 30?$15.00Apr 5, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies UFO files in 2025?$0.00Apr 5, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies UFO files in 2025?$0.00Apr 5, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by March 31?$0.00Apr 5, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$10.01Mar 4, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$7.00Feb 28, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$48.26Jan 27, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by March 31?$8.00Jan 27, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$1.89Jan 27, 17:31 UTC
- REDEEMMaduro in U.S. custody by January 31?$1.00Jan 23, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro in U.S. custody by January 31?$1.00Jan 3, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: December$0.00Jan 3, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: December$1.89Jan 3, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) hit $355 before 2026??$0.00Jan 3, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get 120 million or more views on week 1?$0.00Dec 11, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 110 and 120 million views on week 1?$0.00Dec 11, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?$0.00Dec 11, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$0.00Dec 11, 01:55 UTC
- REDEEMFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$0.00Dec 11, 01:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $5.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 25, 22:03 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 5, 20:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.