Coarse-Hardboard
0xa31839ce6a68cb2bf324a2014a6c3c548c7cd0cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
107
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-710.00
Realised
$-23.91
Win rate
0%
107 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 107- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 1?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-19.98
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 1?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 3?
6669 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on July 12?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 12?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on July 12?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 3?
3998 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on July 12?
3898 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29?
3176 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 11?
2983 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-15?$124.07Jul 15, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$97.39Jul 15, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 21:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 107 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
107 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $11.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 06:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 07:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 107 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.