Arid-Grandfather
0xa343710de3e8151990d76b07942405ff914d6403
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$6.52
Total PnL
$-25.36
Realised
$-0.67
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$4.94
$-0.17
- YES
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?
3 shares @ 72.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$1.58
$-0.42
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9?
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on May 9?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
24 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
12 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
12 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$2.322h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?$2.022h ago
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$2.622h ago
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?$5.142h ago
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$5.142h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9?$1.0521h ago
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$0.0021h ago
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.0521h ago
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.0621h ago
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.3121h ago
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$2.0721h ago
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.8521h ago
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.0421h ago
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.8921h ago
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$2.0721h ago
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$0.9921h ago
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.0321h ago
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$0.8021h ago
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$1.0721h ago
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$0.5321h ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 1d ago
- Last active
- 2h ago
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".
