Wallet digest

active

Activity score

76/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$6.7K

Total PnL

$-691.33

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 18

NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
3084 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026
$2.9K
$107.95
NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?
1718 shares @ 74.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$1.7K
$433.26
YES
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
2026 shares @ 68.8¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$1.5K
$95.93
NO
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
280 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$276.79
$7.99
NO
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship?
200 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$200.00
$140.00
CHICAGO CUBS
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$100.00
$60.00
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?
6126 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-306.30
YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
2400 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-174.70
YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 17?
1118 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-198.93
YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
1000 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-110.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity47 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry39 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk75 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 4
Avg trade size: $1.1K
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 17, 00:14 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 09:41:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data