Intent-Ton
0xa36d5c089d7dc73f671c8ca96ed83ec67f5e3654
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-99.66
Realised
$147.11
Win rate
98%
62 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- CURMI
Set 1 Winner: Curmi vs Oktiabreva
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on April 30?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will XRP be the top performing crypto for the week of March 16?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 22?
1999 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- BLACK DRAGONS E-SPORTS
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO3) - South America League Kickoff Playoffs
1997 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- CA PLATENSE
Spread: CA Platense (-2.5)
1990 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
- NO
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?
1984 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- FRANCESCA CURMI
Oeiras 4: Francesca Curmi vs Alisa Oktiabreva
1934 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.93
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?
1866 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.12
- NO
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá?
1769 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 28?$0.24Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 28?$0.47Jul 28, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 28?$0.62Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYApóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 2nd Half O/U 0.5$0.01Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYApóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 2nd Half O/U 0.5$0.05Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYApóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 2nd Half O/U 0.5$0.50Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYApóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: O/U 1.5$0.48Jul 28, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYApóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: Apóllon Lemesoú O/U 1.5$0.46Jul 28, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 28?$1.00Jul 28, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 28?$0.68Jul 28, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 28?$0.22Jul 28, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYApóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: SK Dila Gori O/U 1.5$0.31Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 28?$0.17Jul 28, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 28?$0.42Jul 28, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 28?$0.90Jul 28, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 28?$0.15Jul 28, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat?$0.27Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Caykur Rizespor win on 2026-07-28?$1.36Jul 28, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYApóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: Apóllon Lemesoú O/U 0.5$0.56Jul 28, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caykur Rizespor win on 2026-07-28?$0.00Jul 28, 17:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
98% win rate over 62 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 21/100.
62 closed markets, 98% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 62 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.