Wallet digest

active

Activity score

64/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

141

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.5K

Realised

$248.83

Win rate

85%

48 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 141

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
586 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
580 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-146.55
YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1?
538 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
504 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-11.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
400 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
363 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-140.72
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
351 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-16.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
340 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-13.03
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
330 shares @ 30.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$0.00Jul 12, 00:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$28.10Jul 11, 14:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$27.55Jul 11, 14:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$88.47Jul 11, 14:27 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$88.82Jul 11, 14:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$72.06Jul 11, 14:26 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$71.93Jul 11, 14:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$67.10Jul 11, 14:25 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$67.36Jul 11, 14:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$59.31Jul 11, 14:21 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$50.00Jul 9, 21:43 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$9.21Jul 9, 21:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$63.50Jul 2, 00:45 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$63.95Jul 2, 00:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$64.04Jul 2, 00:44 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$63.82Jul 2, 00:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$66.16Jul 2, 00:42 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$41.03Jul 2, 00:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$40.50Jul 2, 00:32 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$12.47Jul 2, 00:32 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

77/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

85% win rate over 48 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

48 closed markets, 85% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity51 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry34 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk32 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $29.04
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 1, 23:45 UTC
Last active: Jul 12, 00:20 UTC
Win rate sample: 48 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:34:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data