Long-Term-Ordination
0xa3a39a3f828c5a13fd400bebb216e3855de43c17
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
70
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-904.17
Realised
$-48.07
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 24?
2500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 5?
1550 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 9?
1071 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?
1071 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 15?
643 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-40.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 23?
506 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-20.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 16?
318 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-34.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 16?
318 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-98.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16?
318 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-38.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 27?
238 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-9.52
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on March 13?$2.32Mar 12, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$0.03Mar 11, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$1.77Mar 11, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$2.12Mar 11, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$1.66Mar 11, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$3.30Mar 11, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$2.72Mar 11, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$3.40Mar 11, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$1.36Mar 11, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$2.04Mar 11, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?$0.36Mar 11, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 13?$3.08Mar 11, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 13?$4.48Mar 11, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 9?$3.23Mar 11, 04:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9?$12.00Mar 11, 04:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 9?$15.00Mar 11, 04:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9?$0.00Mar 10, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 9?$0.00Mar 10, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 9?$1.06Mar 9, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?$1.06Mar 9, 16:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 11:31 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 12, 09:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.