Remote-Testing
0xa3a417e434923aeaf97afe9a61b10ff9364e5106
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-30.7K
Realised
$-7.9K
Win rate
14%
119 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55340 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$138.35
$-293.97
- YES
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
33300 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$83.25
$-957.38
- YES
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55340 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$83.01
$-349.31
- YES
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55340 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$83.01
$-349.31
- YES
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55340 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$83.01
$-349.31
- YES
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55340 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$83.01
$-349.31
- YES
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55340 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$83.01
$-349.31
- YES
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55340 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$83.01
$-349.31
- YES
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$70.50
$47.06
- YES
Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?
46550 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$69.83
$-293.82
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 29, 02:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$21.00Jul 29, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.01Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.05Jul 29, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01Jul 29, 01:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 29, 01:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 29, 01:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 29, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 29, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.07Jul 29, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 29, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.01Jul 29, 01:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 29, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01Jul 29, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01Jul 29, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 29, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.05Jul 29, 01:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 119 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
119 closed markets, 14% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 119 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.