0xa3d80d1d9620acd1ebffda03303227241008f052
0xa3d80d1d9620acd1ebffda03303227241008f052
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-179.27
Realised
$-12.69
Win rate
0%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25?
38373 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-41.81
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25?
13008 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-17.92
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25?
10324 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-30.92
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 15?
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-7.99
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 4?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 15?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25?
4609 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.99
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 5?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$6.25Aug 1, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$3.14Aug 1, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$3.13Aug 1, 03:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$6.25Jul 31, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$3.13Jul 31, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$3.14Jul 31, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$6.00Jul 30, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$3.13Jul 30, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$3.13Jul 30, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$6.00Jul 29, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$3.13Jul 29, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$3.13Jul 29, 03:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$5.66Jul 28, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$3.13Jul 28, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$3.14Jul 28, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$6.00Jul 27, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$3.13Jul 27, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$3.13Jul 27, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$5.88Jul 26, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$3.13Jul 26, 07:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
41 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $3.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 04:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 04:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.