Noisy-Urn
0xa3e9db4c400ea98a29be08ca08bb96e35b371e2f
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$122.81
Total PnL
$-51.68
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of July 13 above $435?
114 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$114.11
$0.11
- OVER
France vs. England: O/U 3.5
9 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$8.70
$4.70
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 4?
995 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11?
633 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 22?
600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 12?
514 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.60
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 10?
500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 15?
367 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- TRAIL BLAZERS
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors
60 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-13.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) finish week of July 13 above $435?$114.00Jul 17, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: O/U 3.5$4.11Jul 17, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 1 above $490?$143.24Jul 17, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 1 above $490?$143.00Jun 5, 12:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$11.91Jun 5, 12:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$12.13Jun 5, 12:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on May 31?$13.46Jun 5, 12:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?$106.11Jun 5, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?$106.00May 31, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?$106.11May 31, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?$106.01May 30, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on May 31?$13.45May 30, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles$3.04May 30, 12:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in May?$122.52May 30, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in May?$122.31May 29, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$12.12May 29, 11:10 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$134.27May 29, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$134.00May 28, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$11.89May 28, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMHurricanes vs. Canadiens$6.78May 28, 04:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $87.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 12:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 07:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.