0xa3eedc64eb28823b0d6ae5c2c89c132978204be5
0xa3eedc64eb28823b0d6ae5c2c89c132978204be5
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$15.06
Total PnL
$-152.01
Realised
$-13.58
Win rate
16%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12?
15 shares @ 53.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$15.00
$7.00
- YES
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.06
$-1.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 16?
1831 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?
423 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18?
407 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-12.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 12?
404 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on April 1?
398 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 10?
299 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-8.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 10?
278 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 9?
236 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on April 11?$1.04Apr 9, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on April 11?$1.01Apr 9, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on April 11?$0.38Apr 9, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on April 12?$1.00Apr 9, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on April 11?$1.01Apr 9, 08:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 15?$0.00Apr 9, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 14?$0.00Apr 9, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 15?$0.00Apr 9, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 14?$0.00Apr 9, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 9?$0.59Apr 8, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 9?$0.65Apr 8, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?$0.74Apr 8, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?$0.52Apr 8, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?$0.30Apr 8, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?$0.25Apr 8, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?$0.25Apr 8, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?$0.24Apr 8, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?$0.10Apr 8, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?$0.11Apr 8, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?$0.15Apr 8, 17:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $0.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 14:15 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 9, 08:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.