Plaintive-Trail
0xa3fe84d34e81dfba4578e6edc2da823583874ef4
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-789.43
Realised
$12.92
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
337 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-171.76
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
317 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-79.30
- YES
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?
288 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-46.08
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
222 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-19.97
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
220 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-23.46
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
211 shares @ 23.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-49.60
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
176 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-56.34
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
105 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-66.27
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
101 shares @ 74.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-74.92
- OVER
Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5
99 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-50.52
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$4.50Mar 11, 01:21 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$4.56Mar 11, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$6.91Mar 11, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$6.92Mar 11, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$6.36Mar 11, 01:18 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$6.46Mar 11, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$5.26Mar 11, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$5.31Mar 11, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$13.04Mar 11, 01:16 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$13.19Mar 11, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$10.17Mar 11, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$10.17Mar 11, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$7.96Mar 11, 01:14 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$8.04Mar 11, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$17.99Mar 11, 01:11 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$18.18Mar 11, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$27.50Mar 11, 01:10 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$27.80Mar 11, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$30.30Mar 11, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$30.45Mar 11, 01:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $34.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 22:47 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 11, 01:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.