Watchful-Fox
0xa41ad5155332ab96bb60696c3f3aa5cfdb38109b
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$23.19
Total PnL
$-637.49
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
29 shares @ 51.0¢·now 78.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$23.19
$8.19
- NO
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- T1
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner
550 shares @ 72.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 9, 2025$0.00
$-401.00
- YES
Iranian hackers release Trump emails by next Friday?
187 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2025$0.00
$-16.00
- NO
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?
101 shares @ 16.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-16.68
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?
92 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by August 31?
50 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
Will JD Vance say "Medicare" or "Medicaid" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?
42 shares @ 47.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?
37 shares @ 35.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-13.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$15.00Apr 24, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?$15.00Apr 24, 01:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?$30.77Apr 3, 07:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?$27.56Feb 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?$53.96Feb 28, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?$35.00Feb 23, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?$20.00Feb 13, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?$5.00Feb 7, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?$20.00Feb 7, 00:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?$9.11Feb 5, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?$20.00Feb 5, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?$20.00Feb 5, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?$20.00Feb 5, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?$30.00Jan 21, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?$6.05Jan 21, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?$10.00Jan 19, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?$32.58Jan 15, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?$30.00Jan 15, 01:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?$21.68Jan 14, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?$20.00Jan 14, 23:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $55.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 5, 01:22 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 24, 02:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".