Lucky-Sociology
0xa441278f194d1c8e41300674c0aecb1937123b2b
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$4.09
Total PnL
$-2.33
Realised
$-0.54
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025?
3 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.09
$0.01
- NO
Will Pope Leo visit the Philippines first?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
1800 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?$1.80Nov 9, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025?$538.38Oct 23, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025?$542.00Oct 23, 01:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk's net worth be between $310b and $320b on May 31?$1.03Oct 23, 01:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31?$1.03Oct 23, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk's net worth be between $310b and $320b on May 31?$1.00May 15, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo visit the Philippines first?$1.00May 15, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31?$1.00May 15, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$0.99May 15, 02:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill another player lead the NBA in scoring?$1.00May 15, 02:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31?$1.02May 15, 02:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $100 by March?$1.03May 15, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $100 by March?$1.00Mar 25, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31?$1.00Mar 25, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Last Breath' gross more than 9m on its opening weekend?$1.02Mar 25, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?$2.01Mar 25, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?$2.01Mar 25, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?$2.05Mar 25, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?$2.00Feb 26, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Last Breath' gross more than 9m on its opening weekend?$1.00Feb 26, 12:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $39.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 23, 08:40 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 9, 02:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.