Likely-Mark
0xa44dea2e7ed79c31101b24d068fd3fc1274f7ea0
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$1.26
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$367.76
Win rate
83%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
7 shares @ 8.1¢·now 17.9¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$1.26
$0.69
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
49100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-103.11
- YES
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
24000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.86
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
11100 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-77.84
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
10834 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-13.10
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
7984 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-11.90
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
7597 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-53.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
7461 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-42.59
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
6262 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-6.26
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?
6023 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-145.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.57Jun 4, 12:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1.42Jun 4, 11:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.44Jun 4, 11:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1.22Jun 4, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1.15Jun 3, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.18Jun 3, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.02Jun 3, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.10Jun 3, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1.70Jun 3, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.40Jun 3, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.20Jun 3, 11:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.22Jun 3, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1.87Jun 3, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1.17Jun 3, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.46Jun 3, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$3.15Jun 3, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.12Jun 3, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.30Jun 3, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$0.08Jun 3, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1.79Jun 3, 07:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 11:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 12:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".