Adored-Nail
0xa454b1c7a7d97846ec258172c9287eadda1fdaaf
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$376.88
Total PnL
$-65.82
Realised
$0.20
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
227 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$227.00
$4.54
- SYRACUSE ORANGE
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange
85 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$85.00
$43.35
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
22 shares @ 88.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$22.00
$2.58
- YES
Will António José Seguro win the first round?
14 shares @ 31.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$14.00
$9.55
- YES
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
11 shares @ 82.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$11.00
$1.95
- NO
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
7 shares @ 82.8¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.85
$1.06
- NO
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
4 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$4.00
$0.76
- NO
US fertility rate up in Q3 2025?
3 shares @ 76.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.00
$0.71
- NO
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$1.00
$0.17
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?
1 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.00
$0.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$5.34Jan 15, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO by March 31, 2026?$1.68Jan 15, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO by March 31, 2026?$7.00Jan 15, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO by March 31, 2026?$4.20Jan 15, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by March 31, 2026?$1.50Jan 15, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by March 31, 2026?$6.25Jan 15, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by March 31, 2026?$3.75Jan 15, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?$4.05Jan 15, 20:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$12.30Jan 15, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLUp Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?$1.92Jan 15, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUp Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?$2.24Jan 15, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUp Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?$2.08Jan 15, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$7.20Jan 15, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUp Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?$30.03Jan 15, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?$7.20Jan 15, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$1.05Jan 15, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$1.05Jan 15, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$1.68Jan 15, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?$10.53Jan 15, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$1.56Jan 15, 12:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 06:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 15, 21:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".