Outgoing-Crest
0xa45922d1e4a5a534634a24a0a9e89ee929d7924b
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$1.67
Total PnL
$-4.52
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
6 shares @ 54.0¢·now 30.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.67
$-1.32
- NO
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2024$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Iran officially join the war before February?
7 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2024$0.00
$-0.20
- NO
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win?
2 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2024$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Fed rate cut by March 20?
1 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2024$0.00
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$3.00Jan 1, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEM[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?$3.80Sep 17, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by March 20?$0.50Jan 25, 18:12 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30?$0.00Jan 22, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill crude oil hit $100 in 2023?$0.00Jan 3, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah officially join the war in 2023?$0.50Jan 2, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win?$0.50Jan 2, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran officially join the war before February?$0.20Jan 2, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?$2.00Jan 2, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah officially join the war in 2023?$0.50Jan 2, 20:17 UTC
- REDEEMIceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30?$2.08Jan 2, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUY[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?$3.00Nov 26, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah officially join the war in 2023?$1.00Nov 22, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill crude oil hit $100 in 2023?$1.00Nov 22, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMCricket World Cup: India vs. Australia$0.00Nov 22, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Snoop smoke again in 2023?$4.17Nov 22, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYCricket World Cup: India vs. Australia$1.00Nov 17, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30?$1.00Nov 17, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Snoop smoke again in 2023?$1.00Nov 17, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30?$105.00Nov 17, 13:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $8.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 17, 13:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 1, 18:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".