Realistic-Deployment
0xa462011c7429ea3a39ab0007864d2ebf99c80fb2
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$50.26
Win rate
89%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 27?
9855 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 27?
2583 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-25.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 15°F or below on January 27?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on January 24?
1900 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-7.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or higher on January 29?
1598 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 9°F or below on January 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 18?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on January 27?
960 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 21?
746 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-11.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$0.25Mar 22, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$3.15Mar 22, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$2.25Mar 22, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$3.55Mar 22, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$0.25Mar 22, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$1.80Mar 22, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$3.20Mar 22, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$0.20Mar 22, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$4.20Mar 22, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$2.80Mar 22, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$1.56Mar 22, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$0.20Mar 22, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$0.90Mar 22, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$7.60Mar 22, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$2.23Mar 22, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$5.57Mar 22, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$3.20Mar 22, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$6.80Mar 22, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1.60Mar 22, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$7.40Mar 22, 09:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 14, 19:09 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 22, 17:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.