0xa48650dfb96a6d2f0264cc4fcff7ad418561790a
0xa48650dfb96a6d2f0264cc4fcff7ad418561790a
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-232.73
Realised
$-15.64
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? (February 10)
302 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.21
- YES
Will John Cornyn come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
113 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.78
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the March meeting?
113 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.77
- NO
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting?
94 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-6.58
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January?
91 shares @ 60.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-54.97
- YES
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
62 shares @ 46.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-28.85
- YES
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
60 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-35.40
- YES
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
50 shares @ 63.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-31.62
- M80
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs M80 (BO3)
43 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-22.79
- NO
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
21 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-14.49
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January?$0.00Jun 15, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January?$0.00Jun 14, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$0.37Jun 13, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?$0.95Jun 13, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$0.99Jun 13, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?$1.00Jun 13, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?$1.00Jun 13, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$0.00Jun 13, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January?$0.00Jun 13, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?$0.00Jun 13, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$0.00Jun 13, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?$0.00Jun 13, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?$0.00Jun 13, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$0.00Jun 13, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January?$0.00Jun 13, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?$0.00Jun 13, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$0.00Jun 13, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?$0.00Jun 13, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?$0.00Jun 13, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?$0.00Jun 13, 15:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $6.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 06:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 06:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.