0xa4983eaf81f89fdf7e410ef3b3cbefedad5856ae
0xa4983eaf81f89fdf7e410ef3b3cbefedad5856ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.1K
Realised
$-41.55
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
5823 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.82
- YES
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
1763 shares @ 96.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
988 shares @ 94.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-929.25
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
802 shares @ 53.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-431.80
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
100 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.