Glass-Typewriter
0xa49b6ea0a604c581f2a9569db42c192b1c487054
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$38.7K
Total PnL
$-81.4K
Realised
$15.8K
Win rate
64%
194 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
35034 shares @ 50.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.5K
$3.0K
- NO
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
35034 shares @ 50.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.5K
$-3.0K
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
9943 shares @ 15.1¢·now 36.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.6K
$2.1K
- YES
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
5630 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.71
$-627.41
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
25696 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-665.61
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
24097 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-267.67
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
23791 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-487.31
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
23438 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-864.71
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
21467 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.8K
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
21306 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 30?$14.04Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 30?$15.15Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$0.30Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 30?$1.84Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 30?$0.29Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$0.56Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 30?$1.80Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 30?$0.69Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 30?$1.88Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 30?$4.63Jul 28, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$8.14Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 29?$6.46Jul 28, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 30?$7.36Jul 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$9.56Jul 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$4.84Jul 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$28.29Jul 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$2.12Jul 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 29?$0.54Jul 28, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 29?$5.59Jul 28, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?$2.00Jul 28, 19:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 194 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
194 closed markets, 64% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 18:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 194 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.