Cultured-Affiliate
0xa49cb29c740c0c2168ab875f8a8edc23748228dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-569.02
Realised
$34.03
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
13529 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2024$0.00
$-189.99
- YES
Palisades fire burns 30,000-35,000 acres by Friday?
3418 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Palisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday?
1314 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
Palisades fire burns 20,000-25,000 acres by Friday?
36 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2025$0.00
$-13.06
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump impose tariffs on Canada in his first week? $384.91Jan 16, 01:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael announces ceasefire by January 16?$280.05Jan 16, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael announces ceasefire by January 16?$168.86Jan 15, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump impose tariffs on Canada in his first week? $485.00Jan 14, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYPalisades fire burns 20,000-25,000 acres by Friday?$13.06Jan 10, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYPalisades fire burns 25,000-30,000 acres by Friday?$200.00Jan 9, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYPalisades fire burns 30,000-35,000 acres by Friday?$200.00Jan 9, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trudeau resign Today?$2.5KJan 6, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trudeau resign Today?$100.00Jan 6, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trudeau resign Today?$100.00Jan 6, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trudeau resign Today?$100.00Jan 6, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trudeau resign Today?$200.00Jan 6, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trudeau resign Today?$100.00Jan 6, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trudeau resign Today?$100.00Jan 6, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLTrudeau resigns before February?$1.6KJan 6, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrudeau resigns before February?$891.75Jan 5, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLTrudeau resigns before February?$0.22Jan 5, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLTrudeau resigns before February?$277.44Jan 5, 00:57 UTC
- TRADESELLTrudeau resigns before February?$614.09Jan 5, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrudeau resigns before February?$137.47Dec 28, 16:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $333.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 28, 06:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 01:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.