0xa4babbe6b98c642de40ea990df7ccf33296ec5d8
0xa4babbe6b98c642de40ea990df7ccf33296ec5d8
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.59
Total PnL
$-15.6K
Realised
$-6.2K
Win rate
1%
93 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of July?
192 shares @ 2.6¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.59
$-2.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 29?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 6?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 14?
6389 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 14, 2025$0.00
$-50.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 14?
6370 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 14, 2025$0.00
$-50.20
- NO
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?
4514 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-42.84
- YES
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-28?
4242 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-53.81
- KINGS
Kings vs. Suns
4048 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-11.20
- YES
Will AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?
4025 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw?
4025 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-9.49
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of July?$4.99Jul 31, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$5.10Jul 31, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$5.10Jul 31, 03:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?$2.94Jul 31, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?$4.87Jul 31, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4.44Jul 31, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?$4.62Jul 30, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4.62Jul 30, 14:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$4.39Jul 30, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$4.95Jul 30, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4.86Jul 30, 10:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$2.62Jul 30, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ post 0-19 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$2.18Jul 30, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$4.64Jul 30, 04:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$4.32Jul 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$4.80Jul 30, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$4.86Jul 29, 23:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$3.80Jul 29, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?$4.04Jul 29, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$4.70Jul 29, 17:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 93 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
93 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 22:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 13:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 93 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.