Personal-Peacoat
0xa4cb8bc981fb72625d0c180ce94c96c6aed9f2f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-535.44
Realised
$5.36
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
1110 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-99.93
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
202 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 9, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
159 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
139 shares @ 71.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
126 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
117 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
77 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-19.20
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
74 shares @ 40.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
69 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-0.86
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
48 shares @ 51.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 9, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$1.00Feb 13, 15:17 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?$0.00Feb 13, 11:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$0.00Feb 13, 11:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$0.00Feb 13, 11:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$15.91Feb 13, 11:43 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?$0.00Feb 13, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$0.00Feb 13, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$0.00Feb 13, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$10.00Feb 13, 11:37 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?$0.00Feb 13, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$0.00Feb 13, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$1.79Feb 13, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?$1.00Feb 13, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.64Feb 13, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$1.00Feb 13, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.00Feb 13, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.00Feb 13, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.00Feb 13, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.00Feb 13, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.00Feb 13, 10:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $4.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 20, 04:49 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 13, 15:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.