Which-Gaffe
0xa4f3b3593ef81d08b7278c02554b796bba5d676d
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$15.25
Total PnL
$-93.46
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of July 20 2026?
9 shares @ 99.7¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$8.87
$-0.11
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
5 shares @ 95.5¢·now 98.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.26
$0.14
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 98.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.11
$0.01
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 12?
4240 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-8.48
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 19?
1130 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-6.78
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 17?
1120 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-6.72
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 3?
1108 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.22
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 2?
1105 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.21
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 28?
1103 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.21
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 1?
1102 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of July 20 2026?$8.98Jul 23, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$8.98Jul 10, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$8.95Jul 9, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28?$1.1KMay 28, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28?$1.1KMay 28, 04:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 27?$1.1KMay 27, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 27?$1.1KMay 27, 06:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 26?$1.1KMay 26, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 26?$1.1KMay 26, 03:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 25?$1.1KMay 25, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 25?$1.1KMay 25, 04:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 24?$1.1KMay 25, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 24?$1.0KMay 24, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 20?$2.12May 20, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $70 on May 11?$2.13May 12, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 5?$2.12May 5, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUY10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$5.12May 4, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 26?$3.21Apr 26, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18?$2.17Apr 17, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 4?$2.12Apr 4, 05:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $516.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 07:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 02:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.