0xa515e65a9b0a327aca08b0a863d5d69f81b10093
0xa515e65a9b0a327aca08b0a863d5d69f81b10093
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
63
Open notional
$11.66
Total PnL
$0.94
Realised
$0.29
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- YES
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA World Cup Match?
10 shares @ 2.1¢·now 14.7¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$1.40
$1.20
- ARGENTINA
Spread: Argentina (-5.5)
26 shares @ 3.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$1.04
$0.26
- YES
Will USD fall to 17,400 Indonesian rupiah by June 30?
7 shares @ 3.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.40
$0.20
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
111 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.39
$0.06
- NO
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
40 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.36
$0.16
- YES
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by June 30?
10 shares @ 2.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.31
$0.11
- YES
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
28 shares @ 0.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.31
$0.11
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 26?
22 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.29
$0.09
- PARAGUAY
Spread: Paraguay (-3.5)
20 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.28
$0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?
6 shares @ 3.3¢·now 4.7¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.28
$0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?$0.20Jun 23, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.05Jun 23, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 25?$0.19Jun 23, 20:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25?$0.22Jun 23, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.00Jun 23, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.01Jun 23, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.07Jun 23, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.01Jun 23, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.01Jun 23, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.09Jun 23, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.23Jun 23, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYScotland vs. Brazil: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5$0.02Jun 23, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.02Jun 23, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.09Jun 23, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?$0.15Jun 23, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?$0.05Jun 23, 19:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 25?$0.21Jun 23, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,400 in June?$0.01Jun 23, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USD fall to 17,400 Indonesian rupiah by June 30?$0.20Jun 23, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYScotland vs. Brazil: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5$0.17Jun 23, 19:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 16:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 20:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.