Proud-Facelift
0xa530f2fe89395406eaa9416beaf406ab8e96018c
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$5.20
Total PnL
$-7.12
Realised
$-0.05
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$1.09
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.09
$0.00
- NO
Will "Ms. Rachel: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Solana dip to $20 in June?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- NO
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- YES
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.37
- YES
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $190-$192 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-0.69
- YES
Will Paprika Recipe Manager 3 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-0.61
- YES
Will any other team finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-0.58
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?$5.99Jun 26, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?$7.00Jun 26, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?$7.30Jun 26, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?$8.40Jun 26, 10:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana dip to $20 in June?$7.98Jun 26, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $20 in June?$9.00Jun 26, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26?$8.88Jun 26, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26?$10.00Jun 26, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ms. Rachel: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$1.00Jun 26, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 1?$1.00Jun 17, 19:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings?$1.05Jun 17, 19:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2?$1.14Jun 17, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings?$1.03Jun 1, 05:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2?$5.45Jun 1, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 1?$3.98Jun 1, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2?$6.60Jun 1, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 1?$5.00Jun 1, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 200+ posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?$0.00May 7, 17:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?$0.00May 7, 17:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?$0.00May 7, 17:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $5.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 13:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 10:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.