Welcome-Target
0xa53239cb9e2af2a4f53012fa02fe6ee2e7c3cc03
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$35.40
Total PnL
$-423.27
Realised
$51.23
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?
197 shares @ 29.2¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.68
$-34.84
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
7 shares @ 72.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$6.44
$1.66
- NO
Will Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?
40 shares @ 58.5¢·now 8.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.44
$-19.96
- YES
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?
20 shares @ 41.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.10
$-7.10
- YES
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
140 shares @ 35.4¢·now 0.6¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$0.84
$-48.76
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
5 shares @ 31.2¢·now 14.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.77
$-0.85
- YES
Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.13
$-0.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?
250 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- NO
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?
250 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- UP
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 5?
200 shares @ 46.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-93.00
Recent activity
- REWARD$3.42Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$40.80Jul 29, 07:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 5–10%?$1.00Jul 28, 12:48 UTC
- REWARD$1.86Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$26.80Jul 14, 16:04 UTC
- REWARD$1.99Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$39.10Jul 13, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?$9.60Jul 13, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$39.05Jul 13, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?$11.60Jul 13, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?$11.80Jul 13, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?$9.60Jul 13, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$30.79Jul 13, 02:35 UTC
- REWARD$1.01Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$19.00Jul 12, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$23.50Jul 12, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$22.00Jul 12, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$36.00Jul 12, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$1.09Jul 12, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$0.40Jul 12, 13:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $14.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 05:39 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.