Cylindrical-Jumpsuit
0xa536e6e23a5a2444df1c2debf3c615f3837297fb
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$28.45
Total PnL
$-462.21
Realised
$-101.59
Win rate
0%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 22?
227 shares @ 4.4¢·now 6.3¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$14.28
$4.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 22?
44 shares @ 9.1¢·now 22.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$9.92
$5.92
- YES
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
600 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.40
$-0.60
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
411 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.85
$-0.15
- NO
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21?
579 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
338 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 22?
320 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-25.88
- YES
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
273 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 22?$10.48Aug 20, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 22?$4.18Aug 20, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$0.00Aug 20, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$1.07Aug 20, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$1.07Aug 20, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$1.07Aug 20, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.07Aug 20, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.49Aug 20, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.05Aug 20, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$1.07Aug 20, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 20?$1.07Aug 20, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 20?$5.34Aug 20, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 20?$118.81Aug 20, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli$1.05Aug 19, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli$1.04Aug 19, 17:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 19?$0.00Aug 19, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 19?$0.00Aug 19, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 20?$14.93Aug 19, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20?$10.66Aug 19, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 19?$5.35Aug 19, 16:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
40 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $5.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 19:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 21:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.