Fluffy-Slang
0xa56f30224d495fefc5b585c784cf8dec7779b885
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
68
Open notional
$17.87
Total PnL
$-758.81
Realised
$-5.74
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?
850 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.67
$-74.32
- YES
Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
215 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.11
$-1.19
- YES
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
177 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.09
$-0.80
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?
2000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 27?
1668 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-8.72
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
1200 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-19.20
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?
1170 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-39.51
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on May 26?
1023 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-27.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on May 27?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$0.00Aug 15, 14:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$100.00Aug 15, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27?$8.00May 26, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on May 27?$0.07May 26, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27?$5.99May 26, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27?$0.70May 26, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27?$0.14May 26, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27?$0.16May 26, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27?$0.47May 26, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27?$0.39May 26, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27?$0.17May 26, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 27?$0.21May 26, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 27?$0.24May 26, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?$2.72May 26, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?$0.31May 26, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?$7.06May 26, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on May 27?$0.02May 26, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27?$1.22May 26, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27?$0.37May 26, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27?$0.37May 26, 10:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $0.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 07:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 14:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.