Few-Prevention
0xa58d4f278d7953cd38eeb929f7e242bfc7c0b9b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$12.0K
Total PnL
$-15.4K
Realised
$-2.1K
Win rate
57%
89 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
29296 shares @ 14.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.4K
$-951.51
- YES
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist in the US for 2026?
30184 shares @ 9.3¢·now 6.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$-986.75
- YES
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
8241 shares @ 17.4¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.2K
$-278.13
- NO
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?
4901 shares @ 32.4¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$-437.93
- NO
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
5606 shares @ 16.1¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$756.87
$-145.13
- YES
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
15576 shares @ 6.6¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$700.93
$-321.48
- NO
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
10110 shares @ 12.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$556.03
$-720.48
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5907 shares @ 8.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$502.08
$29.53
- NO
Will HBO Max win the most Emmys?
1357 shares @ 35.1¢·now 31.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$427.58
$-48.56
- YES
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
1816 shares @ 11.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$208.79
$9.08
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.94Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.32Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$5.00Jul 28, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$2.00Jul 28, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$3.39Jul 28, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?$70.20Jul 28, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 28, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$53.37Jul 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$1.10Jul 28, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$1.10Jul 28, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$1.10Jul 28, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$1.10Jul 28, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$80.00Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" during cabinet meeting?$1.50Jul 28, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$1.10Jul 28, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$1.10Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$1.10Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$1.10Jul 28, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$33.00Jul 28, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$1.10Jul 28, 15:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 89 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
89 closed markets, 57% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $25.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 13:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 89 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.