Ultimate-Seed-Refusal
0xa593ca472a79a1b758fc79000c78f7a239f6924d
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-182.53
Realised
$-0.96
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4AM ET
179 shares @ 62.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-111.74
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 5AM ET
107 shares @ 42.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-45.67
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11PM ET
22 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.12
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 19, 9AM ET
22 shares @ 57.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-12.50
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ET
6 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.42
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10AM ET
2 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.65
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3PM ET
1 shares @ 47.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.47
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11PM ET$5.00Jul 22, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11PM ET$3.18Jul 22, 03:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7PM ET$0.00Jul 22, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7PM ET$2.94Jul 21, 23:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5PM ET$3.23Jul 21, 21:22 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 18:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9AM ET$10.00Jul 20, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9AM ET$5.17Jul 20, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9AM ET$5.33Jul 20, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9AM ET$5.39Jul 20, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9AM ET$6.04Jul 20, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9AM ET$6.17Jul 20, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7AM ET$0.09Jul 20, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7AM ET$3.15Jul 20, 11:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 2AM ET$5.00Jul 20, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 2AM ET$2.39Jul 20, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 11PM ET$3.53Jul 20, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 11PM ET$3.77Jul 20, 03:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $3.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 13:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 04:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.