Idealistic-Methane
0xa5d872907a8e90c47f0a63b67cc7039afe80b773
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$0.59
Total PnL
$-672.97
Realised
$-10.55
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?
66 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.59
$-0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?
909 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-9.09
- YES
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?
636 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-99.43
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
510 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 24?
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?
489 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-58.64
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?
476 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.76
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
448 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$0.00
$-13.44
- NO
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
385 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-46.17
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
364 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-21.82
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?$3.31May 24, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?$1.29May 24, 08:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?$21.64May 24, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?$0.05May 22, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?$0.61May 21, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?$1.27May 20, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?$3.60May 20, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?$4.42May 20, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?$4.42May 20, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?$4.42May 20, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?$4.42May 20, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?$4.42May 20, 15:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$30.00May 20, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?$0.62May 19, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?$0.82May 19, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat?$0.82May 19, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?$4.65May 19, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?$6.36May 19, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?$3.40May 18, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?$2.68May 18, 15:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $13.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 12:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 24, 08:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.