0xa5dd4e5d46a38db5bb91fe3d97359d7ae8e0bf9a
0xa5dd4e5d46a38db5bb91fe3d97359d7ae8e0bf9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$588.52
Total PnL
$4.3K
Realised
$3.7K
Win rate
95%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- DEMOCRAT
Senate: Will a Democrat (Welch) or Republican (Malloy) win in Vermont?
95 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2022$95.32
$95.32
- NO
Will the CDC declare a variant of high consequence by June 1, 2022?
60 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2022$60.00
$60.00
- YES
Will the next recession in the US happen by Q4 2022?
55 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2023$54.54
$54.54
- YES
Will the next recession in the US happen by Q3 2022?
53 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2022$52.51
$52.51
- YES
2022 NBA Playoffs: Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
47 shares @ 18.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2022$46.87
$38.37
- NO
Will the fully diluted market cap of MetaMask’s $MASK token be higher than $20 Billion a week after its launch?
71 shares @ 0.0¢·now 51.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2022$36.31
$36.31
- YES
[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
21 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 10, 2024$21.18
$21.18
- YES
Will the next recession in the US happen by Q1 2022?
19 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2022$19.26
$19.26
- YES
Will Coinbase support Polygon USDC deposits & withdrawals by June 30, 2022?
18 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2022$17.89
$17.89
- CUELLAR
Who will win the Democratic Nomination in the TX-28 House election: Jessica Cisneros or Henry Cuellar?
15 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 24, 2022$15.40
$15.40
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
95% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.