Basic-Equity
0xa613eeed9d79495409d5441f0837928ec9c397cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$193.97
Total PnL
$-122.95
Realised
$-34.26
Win rate
38%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?
35 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$35.00
$14.70
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
33 shares @ 87.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$33.00
$4.24
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
32 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$32.00
$0.80
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
25 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$25.00
$11.75
- SYRACUSE ORANGE
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange
23 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$23.00
$11.73
- YES
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?
10 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$10.00
$4.20
- YES
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
8 shares @ 14.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$8.00
$6.88
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 22.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.00
$5.46
- YES
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?
7 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$7.00
$3.57
- YES
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
5 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.00
$1.85
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$1.68Jan 16, 00:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?$1.89Jan 16, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?$4.05Jan 16, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?$4.10Jan 16, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$1.68Jan 16, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?$2.64Jan 16, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$2.76Jan 16, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$9.13Jan 15, 23:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$15.77Jan 15, 23:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$16.60Jan 15, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?$1.68Jan 15, 23:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?$3.69Jan 15, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?$18.26Jan 15, 23:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?$10.79Jan 15, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the first round by less than 2%?$1.98Jan 15, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?$29.75Jan 15, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?$2.97Jan 15, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$2.88Jan 15, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$43.00Jan 15, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$1.89Jan 15, 23:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 20:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 00:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.