Decent-Bill
0xa61f8d3ec8691ca21e3e51987bde50559d18fa82
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$1.65
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28?
436 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-17.31
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 6?
425 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-19.63
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 6?
420 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-20.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 3?
375 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-17.65
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on July 6?
368 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-15.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 6?
368 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-18.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 6?
368 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-17.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 6?
368 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-17.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 6?
361 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-16.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 1?
357 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-15.59
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on July 15?$0.28Jul 15, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on July 15?$0.72Jul 15, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on July 15?$1.07Jul 15, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on July 15?$0.35Jul 15, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on July 15?$0.28Jul 15, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on July 15?$0.70Jul 15, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 15?$0.69Jul 15, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 15?$0.92Jul 15, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 15?$0.21Jul 15, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 15?$0.23Jul 15, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 15?$0.10Jul 15, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 15?$0.13Jul 15, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 15?$0.12Jul 15, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 15?$95.48Jul 15, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 15?$1.01Jul 15, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 15?$2.35Jul 14, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on July 15?$0.54Jul 14, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 14?$17.77Jul 14, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 15?$0.25Jul 14, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 15?$0.48Jul 14, 21:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 13:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 13:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.