Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-168.30

Realised

$-7.30

Win rate

77 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 77

UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
201 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
40 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
29 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
29 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
17 shares @ 12.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$2.83Jul 29, 04:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$2.08Jul 29, 04:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$2.06Jul 29, 04:41 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$5.19Jul 27, 16:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$2.12Jul 26, 16:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$2.11Jul 24, 16:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$3.13Jul 24, 16:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$2.06Jul 24, 16:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$2.07Jul 24, 16:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$2.07Jul 24, 16:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$4.19Jul 23, 17:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$3.09Jul 23, 17:32 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$3.23Jul 23, 17:32 UTC
TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$3.31Jul 23, 17:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$2.07Jul 23, 17:27 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$2.08Jul 23, 17:26 UTC
TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$5.90Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$5.69Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$5.11Jul 23, 17:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$5.10Jul 23, 17:21 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 77 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

77 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry64 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $3.21
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 17, 16:35 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 04:46 UTC
Win rate sample: 77 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 01:40:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data